The mobile app vs. site debate started out being slanted in a single direction: an app is native, can do more, and does not require an internet connection. Also, having a mobile app downloaded means a significantly more captive audience than a website. Really, does anyone use bookmarks on a smartphone?
Recently, the balance has been shifting. According to ABIResearch, "the mobile web is getting more and more sophisticated... so that more subscribers will use the functionality on mobile websites themselves rather than dedicated apps... " In fact, the download rate is predicted to begin its decrease after a peek in 2013 as "many applications (increasingly built on web standards) will migrate from app stores to regular websites, and for some sites you won’t need an app at all."
There is a combination of factors that I feel will impact the reality:
Recently, the balance has been shifting. According to ABIResearch, "the mobile web is getting more and more sophisticated... so that more subscribers will use the functionality on mobile websites themselves rather than dedicated apps... " In fact, the download rate is predicted to begin its decrease after a peek in 2013 as "many applications (increasingly built on web standards) will migrate from app stores to regular websites, and for some sites you won’t need an app at all."
There is a combination of factors that I feel will impact the reality:
- Bandwidth availability. Say what you will, but many of your apps already fail to work without an Internet connection, demonstrating that we are relying on a near-constant internet connection.
Plop! There goes the BIG reason for native apps: connectivity. - Usage patterns and failure rate. More and more, apps are relying on in-app purchases to generate revenue. According to localytics, over a quarter of apps' downloads are deleted after the first try. Still, this is far better than website abandonment rate.
- Proliferation of web technologies for mobile app development. A year or so after the iphone release, I looked into iOS development and learned that payday would be behind many mountains of a steep learning curve.
As technologies such as PhoneGap, AppMobi, etc are building tools to make mobile development a snap and javascript libraries are maturing to create miracles (how's this for a 3D miracle?), we are required to know less, our skills become more portable and we no longer need to fight with individual phone platform's OS, libraries and the variety of programming languages required to support multiple devices.
Wait, am I making the argument that there will be more "native" apps because they are easier to build? Well, yes - but the here is the flip side: apps are looking more and more like mobile websites. As the trend continues, consumers will abandon the high hurdle of downloads and navigate via the web - and app developers will maintain a website identical to the functionality of the app, eventually making the app deployment less necessary.
Will the concept of a mobile app go away? Of course not. Most of us do not use the web to check our email. Many have desktop task managers and office products. But let's face it: there was a time when the web was mostly content and stores, while "real work" was done locally. That paradigm is gone. Our life is online, and there are a few key applications we like to keep close.
What does this mean for mobile developers? In my opinion, it pushes the debate of native development vs. web technologies strongly in the direction of the web. It's where we live. It's what we are. It's what the future looks like. So close that C# text book and get to know jQuery Mobile. You'll get far more bang for your buck. Enjoy!


8:19 PM
Kate Yoak



